Research
R&R / Working Papers
[1] Deng, Rex Weiye. Screened Realities: How Entertainment Fosters Political Compliance in Autocracies. Job market paper.
- Rebecca Morton Poster Award, 2025 Rebecca B. Morton Conference on Experimental Political Science (New York University)
- Timothy E. Cook Best Graduate Student Paper Award, APSA 2024
- Media coverage: KSVR Radio
Abstract
Existing research suggests that autocrats face a dilemma: manipulating negative information about regime performance can cause public backlash, but revealing such information can make the regime look incompetent and unaccountable. I argue that, to solve this dilemma, autocrats have relied on entertainment, where problems get revealed not in isolation but as part of a dramatized narrative that highlights the regime’s efforts to address them. Since such “problem-revealing entertainment” likely makes audiences immersed in its narratives, it has the potential to positively affect public perceptions of the regime. Drawing on a content analysis of such productions, a text analysis of 400,000 audience reviews, and two original experiments, I demonstrate that China has systematically generated entertainment disclosing details of corruption while stressing its anti-corruption efforts, and that these products improve citizens’ perceptions of the regime’s competence and accountability because of their realistic and immersive content. These findings illustrate how information manipulation through entertainment media strengthens authoritarian resilience.[2] Deng, Rex Weiye. Weaponizing Democracy’s Woes: Negative Propaganda and Regime Evaluations in Autocracies. Revise and Resubmit, The Journal of Politics.
Abstract
Historically, good governance in liberal democracies has been a critical driver for democratization. Yet, the growing visibility of social and political problems in liberal democracies, especially the U.S., offer autocrats an opportunity to undermine the liberal model and bolster their own legitimacy. I argue that by strategically amplifying these problems — a tactic I term negative propaganda — autocrats can erode support for liberal democracies by selectively presenting ostensibly credible and fear-inducing information, although not necessarily increase support for the domestic regime. By analyzing over 900,000 Weibo posts from Chinese state media, I show that negative propaganda is widespread, garners substantial public attention, and frequently features seemingly credible and fear-inducing content. A survey experiment in China further demonstrates that exposure to such propaganda lowers evaluations of liberal democracies, but does not improve support for the domestic regime. These findings underscore the inherent tension between liberal democratic governance and authoritarian resilience.[3] Deng, Rex Weiye, Taishi Muraoka, and Margit Tavits. Exploiting Extremism: Strategic Responses of Radical Right Parties to Right-Wing Violence in Europe. Under review.
Abstract
How do radical right (RR) parties in Europe respond to rising levels of right-wing violence targeting immigrants and ethnic minorities, given such violence may threaten their legitimacy due to their ideological proximity to the perpetrators? We theorize that RR parties likely respond to this challenge by adopting a scapegoating strategy: rather than withdrawing or diverting attention, they amplify anti-immigrant/minority rhetoric to shift blame onto minority groups/policies. Drawing on a large-scale dataset of Facebook posts by political parties across 18 European countries (2014—2022) and comprehensive data on right-wing violence, we find that RR parties post more frequently, and negatively, about immigrants and minorities following attacks. Moreover, we find that user engagement with RR parties' social media content related to minorities increases after right-wing attacks, suggesting that this strategy likely pays off. These findings deepen our understanding of how RR parties navigate hostile environments to maintain voter support through strategic rhetoric.[4] Carter, David, B. and Rex Weiye Deng. Does State-Led Development in Once Hard-to-Reach Places Cultivate Political Trust? Under review.
Abstract
Conventional wisdom suggests that increased state presence in historically remote regions provokes local resistance. In contrast, we argue that residents in these areas respond positively to a critical yet under-explored form of state presence -- infrastructural development -- and exhibit higher levels of trust in national institutions than those in core regions. Two mechanisms explain this relationship: (1) limited prior interaction with the state makes political attitudes in remote areas more malleable, and (2) infrastructural development is both more novel and beneficial in peripheral regions. We also identify resource extraction and conflict history as scope conditions that moderate this relationship. Using large-scale geospatial data from 46 developing countries and a Difference-in-Differences design leveraging Tanzania’s rural electrification program, we find consistent support for our hypotheses. These results underscore both the promise and the constraints of infrastructural development as a tool for state building, particularly in historically underdeveloped areas.[5] Charaniya, Amaan, Rex Weiye Deng, Dahjin Kim, Gechun Lin, William Nomikos, and Ipek Ece Sener. Can Leaders Shape Public Opinion During a Foreign Policy Crisis? Evidcence from U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan. Under review.
[Manuscript Available Upon Request]
- Best Foreign Policy Paper Award, APSA 2022
Abstract
The general public greeted news of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending a two-decade long operation, with mixed reactions. In this paper, we describe the real-time reactions to the American withdrawal on Twitter. We trace and describe online discussions specifically about the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan by collecting a unique dataset of 7 million tweets. Instead of relying on a pre-determined group of users, we collect all tweets in the United States sent between August and September of 2021 that mention a list of keywords related to the withdrawal. This approach allows us to collect a comprehensive corpus of tweets related to the Afghan withdrawal. We then apply a semi-supervised machine learning algorithm to measure sentiment toward both the Trump administration, which began the withdrawal, and the Biden administration, which concluded it. We find that social media reactions to key events are rapid but transient. We observe no spikes but a steady increasing volume of negative Tweets after the United States completes the withdrawal process on August 31st.Selected Work in Progress
Deng, Rex Weiye. Softening the Crisis: How Cultural Diplomacy Contributes to Interstate Reconciliations. [Manuscript upon request]
Deng, Rex Weiye and Haifeng Huang. Cute Propaganda: A Blessing or A Curse?