Rex Weiye Deng

Rex Weiye Deng

Assistant Professor of Political Science

Research

Publications

[1] Deng, Rex Weiye. Propaganda of Democracy’s Flaws and Its Impact on Regime Evaluations in Autocracies. The Journal of Politics.

Abstract Historically, good governance in established democracies has been a critical driver for democratization. Yet, the growing visibility of social and political problems in established democracies offers autocrats an opportunity to undermine the democratic model and bolster their own legitimacy. I argue that by strategically amplifying these problems—a tactic I term propaganda of democratic flaws—autocrats can undermine the appeal of a democratic system because such messages often appear credible and evoke fear, even though they do not necessarily increase evaluations of the domestic regime. A text analysis of Weibo posts from Chinese state-affiliated media from 2013 to 2024 and two original survey experiments in China provide consistent support for my argument. These findings show that democratic governance has far-reaching consequences beyond its borders, shaping the global trajectory of authoritarianism.

R&R / Working Papers

[1] Deng, Rex Weiye. Screened Realities: How Entertainment Fosters Political Compliance in Autocracies. Conditionally Accepted, American Political Science Review.

Abstract Propaganda has become increasingly important for contemporary dictators to secure public support, but it loses both credibility and audience attention when it denies or evades problems citizens already recognize. I propose that autocrats respond with *problem-solving entertainment*: state-sponsored narratives that portray governance failures the regime cannot plausibly deny while dramatizing its efforts to address them. Drawing on a content analysis of these productions, an analysis of viewership and rating data, a survey experiment, and a three-wave panel experiment, I demonstrate that (1) China has systematically produced entertainment presenting the regime not as free of corruption but as capable of correcting it, and (2) these narratives can attract audience attention and improve citizens' perceptions of the regime's competence and accountability, with panel evidence that some effects persist for three to four weeks. These findings illustrate how entertainment offers autocrats a way to convert publicized failure into an asset for their reputation.

[2] Deng, Rex Weiye, Taishi Muraoka, and Margit Tavits. Exploiting Extremism: Strategic Responses of Radical Right Parties to Right-Wing Violence in Europe. Revise and Resubmit.

Abstract How do radical right (RR) parties in Europe respond to rising levels of right-wing violence targeting immigrants and ethnic minorities, given such violence may threaten their legitimacy due to their ideological proximity to the perpetrators? We theorize that RR parties likely respond to this challenge by adopting a scapegoating strategy: rather than withdrawing or diverting attention, they amplify anti-immigrant/minority rhetoric to shift blame onto minority groups/policies. Drawing on a large-scale dataset of Facebook posts by political parties across 18 European countries (2014—2022) and comprehensive data on right-wing violence, we find that RR parties post more frequently, and negatively, about immigrants and minorities following attacks. Moreover, we find that user engagement with RR parties' social media content related to minorities increases after right-wing attacks, suggesting that this strategy likely pays off. These findings deepen our understanding of how RR parties navigate hostile environments to maintain voter support through strategic rhetoric.

[3] Deng, Rex Weiye. Softening the Crisis: How Cultural Diplomacy Fosters Support for International Reconciliation. Under Review.

Abstract Does cultural diplomacy promote public support for international cooperation between rival states? While some high-profile cases have inspired optimism and states increasingly invest in soft-power diplomacy, its causal impact remains contested. I argue that when used as a conciliatory gesture, cultural diplomacy can enhance perceptions of a rival's sincerity, thereby increasing public support for reconciliation, including willingness to endorse low-stakes policy concessions. This effect likely operates through two mechanisms: (1) its public nature raises the reputational cost of reneging on a visible peace gesture (informational mechanism), and (2) it evokes positive emotions and humanizes adversaries (psychological mechanism). However, I do not expect it to increase support for riskier concessions. Evidence from two parallel survey experiments in the U.S. and China supports my argument. Further analysis shows that the psychological mechanism plays a determining role. This study highlights cultural diplomacy's peace-building potential and its psychological foundations for promoting international cooperation.

[4] Carter, David, B. and Rex Weiye Deng. Does State-Led Development in Once Hard-to-Reach Places Cultivate Political Trust? Under Review.

Abstract Conventional wisdom suggests that increased state presence in historically remote regions provokes local resistance. In contrast, we argue that residents in these areas respond positively to a critical yet under-explored form of state presence -- infrastructural development -- and exhibit higher levels of trust in national institutions than those in core regions. Two mechanisms explain this relationship: (1) limited prior interaction with the state makes political attitudes in remote areas more malleable, and (2) infrastructural development is both more novel and beneficial in peripheral regions. We also identify resource extraction and conflict history as scope conditions that moderate this relationship. Using large-scale geospatial data from 46 developing countries and a Difference-in-Differences design leveraging Tanzania's rural electrification program, we find consistent support for our hypotheses. These results underscore both the promise and the constraints of infrastructural development as a tool for state building, particularly in historically underdeveloped areas.

[5] Charaniya, Amaan, Rex Weiye Deng, Dahjin Kim, Gechun Lin, William Nomikos, and Ipek Ece Sener. Can Leaders Shape Public Opinion During a Foreign Policy Crisis? Evidcence from U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan. Under Review.

  • Best Foreign Policy Paper Award, APSA 2022
Abstract The general public greeted news of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending a two-decade long operation, with mixed reactions. In this paper, we describe the real-time reactions to the American withdrawal on Twitter. We trace and describe online discussions specifically about the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan by collecting a unique dataset of 7 million tweets. Instead of relying on a pre-determined group of users, we collect all tweets in the United States sent between August and September of 2021 that mention a list of keywords related to the withdrawal. This approach allows us to collect a comprehensive corpus of tweets related to the Afghan withdrawal. We then apply a semi-supervised machine learning algorithm to measure sentiment toward both the Trump administration, which began the withdrawal, and the Biden administration, which concluded it. We find that social media reactions to key events are rapid but transient. We observe no spikes but a steady increasing volume of negative Tweets after the United States completes the withdrawal process on August 31st.

Selected Work in Progress

Deng, Rex Weiye and Haifeng Huang. Cute Propaganda: A Blessing or A Curse?

Deng, Rex Weiye and Dahjin Kim. Singing the Truth: Correcting Misperceptions Through Song Lyrics.

Deng, Rex Weiye. Imperial Echoes: How Historical Dramas Shape Contemporary Support for Strongman Rule.